April 13, 2011

70) Pure Technologies – remember option value

I was a little surprised yesterday by Cisco’s announcement that it would shut down its Flip video business and make 550 employees redundant – in part because I love the product and in part because I imagined that there must be an alternative, for example to spin the business out of Cisco.  It made me think through what made Flip previously great – to follow is a blog post on that and I’ll close out with some reflections on yesterday’s announcement…

危 wēi  danger

Pure Digital Technologies launched a line of disposable digital camera products in 2004 – customers would rent the cameras through drugstores, return them and pay for prints.  The product initially did well, however as the price of non-disposable cameras dropped Pure Digital’s sales tumbled.  “The market demand for that product just melted away, we found ourselves selling disposable cameras into a market that was shrinking by the hour” said Michael Moritz, an investor in Pure Digital.

The company pivoted into single-use digital camcorders, also distributed through drugstores but the customer uptake was poor.  Surely the company would continue to feel pricing pressure from the Asian manufacturers and would be forced to wind up gracefully?

机 jī opportunity

Jonathan Kaplan, the company’s CEO refused to roll over so easily.  Instead, he looked for option value in this apparent failure – he wondered if he could use his market learnings and company’s skills to identify a new opportunity.

Firstly, the company noticed that hackers were removing the memory chips from the single-use cameras so they could put videos onto their PCs.   Secondly, drugstores had been asking the company to limit the accessories it shipped with its cameras. With these market needs in mind Pure Digital’s staff hit upon the idea of creating a cheap, easy-to-use digital camera with a built-in USB connector.

The company initially launched a ”Pure Digital Point & Shoot” video camcorder in 2006 and then designed an even more minimal product – launching the Flip line of products in 2007. The device’s success was primarily attributed to this minimalism while all other camcorder manufacturers raced to add more features. As a result, the Flip grew the camcorder market: it held close to one-fifth of the total market at its peak.  It was announced in 2009, that Cisco Systems had acquired Pure Digital Technologies for $590 million USD in stock – it was on a roll.

The launch of the single use digital and video cameras hadn’t been an absolute failure – it had created the option for the company to iterate its strategy and develop the hugely successful Flip.

    —

    Fast forward to yesterday’s announcement.  Flip had succeeded previously by radically changing its strategy, I suspect this capability was lost once the business was folded into Cisco and so perhaps yesterdays announcement – to reverse years of efforts at diversifying into consumer products – might be the right one.  Not because there is no potential value in the Flip business but more because Cisco is not well designed to capitalise on the option value that the current challenges might hold.  After all, given the rise of the smartphone, the value in Flip must be in moving into offering services.

    Cisco failed to integrate Flip into its core vision of a networked world or to enable it to stand alone and retain its entrepreneurial spirit.  Had it chosen the latter Flip may just have found some new areas of opportunity and we might have seen entrepreneurs lead a management buy-out – instead the business fell between two stools…

    –

    How About…

    • Taking time to analyse market failures – examining what opportunities the learning opens up?
    • Observing the users that you do have – how are they really using your product?
    • If making an acquisition, assessing whether you need it to retain autonomy / ability to shift strategy?

    –

    Sources NYT article and yersterday’s announcement

    March 24, 2011

    69) Zynga – is its Facebook dependency good or bad?

    危 wēi  danger

    More and more often startups are built with a total dependency on a third party, for example on external platforms such as Facebook, Twitter, Google Apps or iTunes.  The allure of access to a sales channel, rich data and potential customers is obvious but surely that dependency creates huge risk?  What if the external platform changes its approach or decides to develop its own version of the startup?  What if the platform decides that it will no longer support third-parts apps as Twitter did last week.   Zynga, the social gaming company, is an interesting example – it has been valued at over $10bn – surely this is crazy given its complete dependency on Facebook?

    机 jī opportunity

    I was inspired a few weeks by an article on Techcrunch.  The article categorizes dependencies as symbiotic or parasitic.  Parasitic dependencies are problematic, increasing the chance of the third party taking a hostile approach but symbiotic dependencies, in which both parties derive a benefit, pose less of a risk.

    By this definition I think Zynga’s dependency on Facebook remains symbiotic.  Facebook has benefitted because games such as Farmville enrichen the Facebook’s user’s experience – currently over half of FB users play Zynga games, increasing their average time on site considerably.  In addition, Facebook Credits are integrated into all Zynga games (for which Facebook takes a cut of 30%) and the company is reportedly the largest advertiser on Facebook, spending millions a year to drive new installs.

    In return, Zynga has benefitted by leveraging the rapidly growing FB community, successfully harnessing FB tools such as user news feeds to promote game updates.  It’s hard to imagine that Zynga would have grown its user base for CityVille within a week of launch to over 3 million at the end of last year without FB.  Given this symbiotic dependency, Facebook’s growth rate and estimates of it making $630m this year, Zynga’s valuation seems more reasonable.

    It is also worth pointing out that none of this has stopped Zynga building a Plan-B, if only to improve its negotiating power with FB.  For example it began requiring email addresses from users (enabling it to contact them outside FB) and buying mobile application companies – including Newtoy (creator of Words With Friends and Chess With Friends) last year and New York developer Area/Code last month.

    In the case of Twitter it seems ruthless for them to close down so many apps, after all those 3rd party clients helped create behaviors that now make Twitter so valuable: @ mentions, direct messages, re-Tweets and so on (none of which were Twitter’s idea originally).  But, those app’s were effectively in direct competition with Twitter, placing their own advertising and pulling users away from Twitters own platform – a parasitic dependency.  Twitter’s rationale as outlined in this developer forum explains this and the message is clear – if you’re going to develop apps make them symbiotic…

    How About…

    • Considering who your business might be dependent upon?
    • If you do have dependencies can you make them symbiotic rather than parasitic?
    • And how can you plan for the worst?

    —

    October 25, 2010

    64) The 4-Hour Workweek: Escape 9-5, Live Anywhere, and Join the New Rich

    危 wēi  danger

    Timothy Ferriss, an American writer, educational activist, and entrepreneur wrote a semi-autobiographical self-help book in 2007 that was well received by friends and family.  Ferriss’ working title, ‘Drug Dealing for Fun and Profit’, wasn’t as well received.  He decided to proceed with the name anyway, liking it because it polarized opinion.  However, once he had secured distribution, Wal-Mart vetoed the title’s use so Ferriss was back to the drawing board.  He found it relatively easy to whittle the list down to 12 but found it tough to select a final name: everyone had an opinion on the best, including his agent and distributor but none agreed.  Surely he would be best going with his gut feel and upsetting either his distributor or agent?

    机 jī opportunity

    Instead, Ferriss decided to look for some data. He took 6 prospective titles that everyone could live with:  including ‘Broadband and White Sand’, ‘Millionaire Chameleon’ and ‘The 4-Hour Workweek’ and developed an Google Adwords campaign for each.  He bid on keywords related to the book’s content including ‘401k’ and ‘language learning’: when those keywords formed part of someone’s search on Google the prospective title popped up as a headline and the advertisement text would be the subtitle.  Ferriss was interested to see which of the sponsored links would be clicked on most, knowing that he needed his title to compete with over 200,000 books published in the US each year.  At the end of the week, for less than $200 he knew that “The 4-Hour Workweek” had the best click-through rate by far and he went with that title.

    His experimentation didn’t stop there, he decided to test various covers by printing them on high quality paper and placing them on existing similar sized books in the new non-fiction rack at Borders, Palo Alto.  He sat with a coffee and observed, learning which cover really was most appealing.

    My colleague in New York, Joe Gerber has been using this approach recently with real success, it’s a reminder to me that every part of a business (including the virtual) can be prototyped.

    How About…

    • Prototyping every part of your business before launch?
    • Placing advertisements into existing online networks before launch for feedback?  e.g. as Joe says how about using Foursquare to figure out “if this is worth stopping for?”

    —

    source video: http://vimeo.com/3934635

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